Fossils Near Peak

The global energy transition has reached a pivot point in which fossil fuels have likely peaked in their use for producing electricity and are about to enter a period of decline.

This is the idea at the heart of a new report from RMI, a nonprofit that does research and advocacy about the transition. The lead author, energy analyst Kingsmill Bond, makes a case that wind and solar power are going through growth that looks almost exactly like the trend lines for the early stages of transformative products and industries, across technologies and eras, like automobiles and smartphones.

The growth begins slowly, with high costs, and shifts into high gear as costs shrink and efficiency rises.

The optimism in this outlook is almost jarring in its clarity, and in its contrast with the pessimism I see and feel every day as the threats of climate change become clearer.